Wednesday, September 24, 2008

Bucks SHOULD Get In

Yep.

I'm gonna do something I don't normally do. Make a prediction.

You see to me making predictions are a waste of time. Especially those made by people who aren't skilled or use some kind of system to make them or get paid to tell them to you. People like myself.

If my prediction is right, then so what. If I'm wrong. Then so what to the Nth power.

But since this is a blog and that's what 90% of blogs are constructed to do (waste time), I will make a prediction here today.

I'm gonna go out on a limb and predict that the Milwaukee Bucks will make the post-season this year.

Earlier today, while wondering if the trade of Bobby Simmons and Yi Jianlian to New Jersey for Richard Jefferson would ultimately be looked at as more than just a blah trade for the Bucks, I also began to take note of their other roster moves AFTER that trade.

Don't get me wrong, RJ is a good player who puts up good solid numbers at probably the 3rd most important position in basketball (behind PG and C), SF. He runs the floor and finishes as well as any player in the league. He plays defense, can handle the ball and from all indications seems to be a very good teammate.

But he does not come without his weaknesses. Of these probably his outside shot is his biggest. He's only a career 33% shooter from downtown. You would ideally want your SF to have better numbers than that from long range.

He has played his entire career with Jason Kidd. How will he play with another PG that maybe doesn't lead the break as well as the Hall of Famer which really helps to emphasize RJ's strengths?

RJ has also been given the tag of 'injury prone' due to missing significant chunks of games 2 out of the last 4 seasons. His most recent stint was during the 2006-2007 season where he missed 27 games following ankle surgery. RJ did however show that he was completely back by playing in all 82 games last year and having one of his best statistical seasons of his career averaging 22, 4 and 3.

But even this also emphasized another one of his potential weaknesses. Does he help your team win ball games?

Despite having one of his best seasons in 2007-2008, the New Jersey Nets finished 34-48 and that Nets team was not devoid of talent.

Now this is as much an indictment against his then teammate Vince Carter as it is RJ, but right now if you ask some whether RJ can take a team to the next level, they will tell you no.

I do not fully believe that to be the case. He will need help to do it but I think he can be a piece.

To me he has firmly cemented his value in the NBA as a premium 3rd option on a very very good basketball team. A team capable of winning a championship.

What I like most for Milwaukee is what they have done SINCE trading for Jefferson. They gave up a very good young scoring PG in Maurice Williams opting for a PG with lesser talent in Luke Ridnour but that is more team oriented and will defer the scoring to Jefferson, Michael Redd and Andrew Bogut (who both look to be borderline number 2 options themselves).

In addition to acquiring Adrian Griffin in the deal for Ridnour, this offseason they signed Tyronn Lue, Francisco Elson, and Malik Allen. These would seemingly represent the veterans that any and all playoff teams need both in the locker room and on the floor.

They have the bench for the job.

A re-focused Charlie Villanueva (who is also in a contract year) and solid role players like Charlie Bell and Ramon Sessions will play a huge factor in the level of the team's success.

They definitely have the coaching staff.

HUGE huge fan of both Scott Skiles and Lionel Hollins as coaches.

So why not the Bucks right?

Here is my prediction:

Pencil in the following teams in the East for the playoffs -

Detroit, Boston, Cleveland, Washington, *Toronto, Philadelphia and Orlando

That leaves one spot open (potentially two as I see Toronto needing to be completely healthy all season long to make it, thus the asterisk) and it can and will be Milwaukee's. If Toronto is out..slide in the Heat. But the Bucks will finish in the top 8.

The Atlanta Hawks have done nothing with their roster to make me think that they will be strong enough to make a return trip to the playoffs.

The Bobcats don't have enough pieces and the Heat still have no PG or center in addition to there being too many question marks as to how they will mesh. Both of these teams are at least one year away from being playoff contenders in my opinion.

So there you have it. Prediction made. Your time wasted.

That last playoff spot is yours for the taking Milwaukee.

Go out and play your game and you should get in this year.

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